TechForX - a technology forecast market

Those of us inclined to predict the future of technology - and I confess that I am not immune from this vice - would do well to try our hands at TechForX, "the technology foresight exchange".

Developed and operated by Andreas Graefe, a PhD student at the German Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, this is a highly sophisticated trading-based predictions market in which participants can buy or sell positions in potential future events.

For example, the market "taxes on virtual worlds" lets participants trade the hypothesis "A value added tax (VAT) for transactions within virtual worlds (like Second Life) is raised" by buying or selling in seven positions, from "never" to "after 2030" at the prevailing market rate. (A word of warning - the interface is relatively complex. I used to sell trading systems for a living and this looks more like the systems use by brokers than the ones used by their clients.)

Prediction markets are, of course, an increasingly mainstream way of tapping what James Surowiecki called The Wisdom of Crowds and experiments have included the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Prediction Market as well as the Pentagon's entertainingly contentious terrorism futures market (CNN). What Andreas has put together is a way for those of us with an eye on the future of media and technology to put our (nominal) money where are mouths are and bet on the likelihood and timing of specific outcomes.

Ray Poynter of The Futures Place has more thoughts, and links to some of the theoretical framework behind prediction markets thinking, here.